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In any ordinary year, Donald Trump's big win in South Carolina on Saturday night would all but anoint him the Republican presidential nominee. That's especially true after his big win in New Hampshire, where he won with support across various age and income groups in the party.
Trump should be a shoo-in. But this is no ordinary year, and Trump is no ordinary candidate. So why aren't more people talking about the race being over?
Here are four thoughts on that and the Trump juggernaut more broadly:
1. Donald Trump is the clear front-runner but not the inevitable nominee — yet.
In a normal election year we'd say someone who won the New Hampshire primaries by a yuuuuge margin and the South Carolina primary by 10 points is the clear front-runner. No Republican candidate has won both those primaries and not gone on to become the nominee. That being said, this is not a typical election year, and there are many Republicans who think either — a.) it's just not possible for Trump to be the nominee, or b.) it would be a calamity for the party's brand and down-ballot prospects if he became the nominee.
2. The GOP establishment doesn't seem to have a game plan to take on Trump.
The GOP establishment has taken Trump on in fits and starts. Jeb Bush fell on his sword trying to undermine Trump. Trump and Ted Cruz have been battling for similar slices of the vote in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina with Cruz making ideological attacks — accusing Trump of not being a "real conservative." That hasn't worked. Now a variety of superPACs are trying, with one pro-Rubio superPAC airing a new attack ad that takes aim at Trump's temperament, calling him erratic. Polls show Trump's biggest weakness is his temperament, but so far nothing the other candidates have said or done has dented his lead.
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3. Now that Bush is out, which candidate will fight Trump?
One of the biggest mysteries of the race is why Marco Rubio hasn't taken on Trump. So far, Rubio has avoided the kind of frontal attack on Trump that backfired on Bush. Rubio has been busy fighting with Cruz and has yet to repeat Bush's criticism that Trump is intolerant and divisive. The longer this race goes on with more than two candidates in it, the better it is for Trump. Some polls show that either Cruz or Rubiocould beat Trump if it were a two-man race, but neither Rubio nor Cruz has an incentive to drop out anytime soon. And those head-to-heads can and will change as more people quit.
4. Trump's argument
Trump argues that as those candidates drop out, he'll inherit some of their support as well. And he suggests that the GOP establishment should quit carping about him. After all, he is bringing new voters into the party, particularly non-college-educated white men. Republicans have had record-breaking turnouts in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and Trump can certainly take some credit for that.
Despite Trump's terrible approval ratings with minorities, Trump's appeal to blue-collar voters could theoretically put states in play such as Pennsylvania and Michigan, and maybe improve the GOP's chances in Ohio.
But he hasn't convinced the Republican establishment of that yet.
I am very confused as to why Donald Trump is still in the presidential race. I haven't really followed along with the Presidential race, but I personally don't think that Trump would be a good leader for our nation. He is popular among the people, but that's all there seems to be with him, popularity. We as a nation need someone who truly cares about the well being of the people to lead. Mr. Trump just seems like a haughty and narrow minded person.
ReplyDeleteI completely agree with Jojo. I dont understand why Trump is still in the race. He seems to be only in it to further publicize his brand. I do not believe that a man with that kind of temperament should handling foreign affairs.
DeleteDonald Trump should no longer be in the presidential race, he racially discriminates groups of people and categorizes groups of people based off of stereotypes. I feel that Trump would not represent our country well if there was a meeting between another country and he did not agree with a certain decision or idea from that country. He would act out and not represent the United States well as a whole. (Despite Trump's terrible approval ratings with minorities". This man does not deserve to represent hundreds of millions of people.
ReplyDeleteI dissagree with ryan. i think donald trump should definently be the president of the united states. i believe what he says about deporting people is good because they are the reason fpr a; our terroist attacks. It may be wrong to deport people of an opposite race just because of wat people may thik they do but it needs to be done.
DeleteI do not think the race is over, because Donald Trump is a sexist bigot that discriminates against anyone who agrees with him. It is really sad how people do support someone who acts as more of a child than a 7 year old who has more self control that Donald Trump. He does not represent our values at all, nor does he represent our constitution. I do not think he will win many electoral votes as the US government already said he won't be. "1. Donald Trump is the clear front-runner but not the inevitable nominee — yet." This is true, and I do hope he does not get as far to even be the nominee. But we just have to see how it plays out and see how it goes.
ReplyDelete- muzamil ahmad p.6
It deeply worries me that Donald Trump is exceeding in his campaigning and won in New Hampshire. I can not imagine what our country would be like with Donald Trump as President. In the article titled "Why Aren't People Declaring The GOP Race Over — And Trump The Winner?," NPR discusses Trump's success in reaching closer and closer to being the Republican nominee. NPR states, "That being said, this is not a typical election year, and there are many Republicans who think either — a.) it's just not possible for Trump to be the nominee, or b.) it would be a calamity for the party's brand and down-ballot prospects if he became the nominee," (NPR Li. 24). I think most of America can agree that Trump should not be elected as President, so I am very confused as to why he is the leading Republican nominee.
ReplyDeleteFaith Rosenberry
Period 6
Only 3 states have voted so far, so the nomination is far from over and things could still change. Just because Donald Trump is in the lead right now, does not mean he will stay in the lead. Also, Donald Trump does not seem able to unite people together, and we have had enough division, we do not want more. Since he does not have presidential behavior, I think a different Republican nominee should be in the lead.
ReplyDeleteI'm not going to state my opinion on this topic, because that isn't what the question was asking. I think people aren't quite giving up hope for another candidate because they are waiting for the field of candidates to shrink down. Right now, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are each receiving about 23% of the votes; sooner or later, people will probably realize that they need to choose one of those two to take down Trump's 40%, or else the race is over. I also think that a lot of people know he is prone to saying outrageous things, and they are waiting for him to make one big slip-up that will cost him the race.
ReplyDeleteJohn Charles- Period 2
I still can't see Trump winning. Yes, he brings in new voters with somewhat radical ideals, but the fact remains that there are more people without these radical ideals than people who do. If Cruz or Rubio drops out then it will make the non radical vote come together instead of being split between the two of them. However, it is surprising to see how well Trump has done for himself. I am very curious to see how far he will go.
ReplyDeleteI have to agree with most people and their thoughts about how Trump is winning. At the beginning of the race, I believed he was only a celebrity trying to inflate his ego...again. However, "Donald Trump's big win in South Carolina on Saturday night would all but anoint him the Republican presidential nominee. That's especially true after his big win in New Hampshire" (NPR). The fact that he has had two big wins in a row has surprised as well as others. Not only this, but Trump recently won in Nevada as well. I doubt other Republicans will try and compete against him. Instead, Cruz and Rubio will come together and try to combat Trump as a team.
ReplyDeleteJonPaul Lambert Period 1
It is interesting how so Donald Trump is so popular even regardless of his political views. It is interesting how he is "the clear front runner" but he is will most likely not be the nominee. it is unusual hoe Donald trump beat out Bush and most likely Rubio and Cruz. the that Donald Trump has such low approval ratings from minorities and yet he appeals to so many blue collar workers is also unusual.
ReplyDeleteIt is interesting how Donald trump is disliked by his fellow candidates but loved by the American people. For example in the article above it states " Republicans who think either — a.) it's just not possible for Trump to be the nominee, or b.) it would be a calamity for the party's brand". Trump is favored by the American people but not by his colleagues. In the end, the american people's opinions outweigh the republicans.
ReplyDeleteAmar Dhillon Period 4
Trump isn't going anywhere, hes here for the long run, he may not be the best for the job, but not the worst. Trump is disliked by everyone Democratic party and Republican party, which I love. He isn't as bad as everyone says, he puts some good points on the floor when you listen to the Republican debates. He just not Politically Correct, which I believe is the best part about him. Trump has won every state that has voted except Iowa, so he defiantly shown that he is here to stay. What people will have to face is that the nominations will most likely be Trump V.S Hillary, so the people of America are going to have to choose between those two.
ReplyDeleteKollin Swinney
P5
I honestly do not understand why Donald Trump was even allowed to run. I get that it's a free country and that's what America is all about, but really? He's trying to ban Muslims from entering the country. Not all Muslims are bad, and it's so ignorant of him to think that they are. You can't tie all terrorists back to an entire religion. So many white Christians have committed acts of terrorism but no one would ever say that all Christians are terrorists. Honestly, this whole thing reminds me of how Japanese-Americans were placed in interment camps when they did nothing wrong at all. I know that we're definitely not going as far as interning all the Muslims in America, but that's sorta just something that comes to mind when this topic is brought up. It was wrong then, and it's wrong now. There are so many American born Muslims who love their country, and they shouldn't be punished because other Muslims are doing stupid stuff. America has the freedom of religion. You can't just not let people in or out because of their religion. Trump should take that in to thought, he should also stop running for president.
ReplyDeleteper 1
Although I agree with a lot of the comments on this post; I do believe people are being harsh. While I know that I don't know that much about Politics, I do know that there is no way a candidate would make it this far if he didn't have any good ideas. Lots of people dislike him just because he isn't politically correct. " Republicans who think either — a.) it's just not possible for Trump to be the nominee, or b.) it would be a calamity for the party's brand".
ReplyDelete-Truman Andrus, P6
Donald Trump has an interesting stance in this political race. Though Trump is neither the ideal nor 'normal' candidate, he does have something interesting going for him. He is brutally honest and not driven by major companies or wall street. As the political race gets closer, candidates will have to take new approaches, as seen in "Trump and Ted Cruz have been battling for similar slices of the vote in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina with Cruz making ideological attacks" (Bernstein). Eventually the race will come to and end and we will see what built the most successful candidate.
ReplyDeleteLasse Nordahl
Period 6
I still can't see Trump winning. Yes, he brings in new voters with somewhat radical ideals, but the fact remains that there are more people without these radical ideals than people who do. If Cruz or Rubio drops out then it will make the non radical vote come together instead of being split between the two of them. However, it is surprising to see how well Trump has done for himself. I am very curious to see how far he will go.
ReplyDeleteCameron Stone -- P6
ReplyDeleteAlthough the poles say Trump is a "shoo-in", the Republican party has made it clear that they do not believe he is a fully capable candidate for president. It may seem that, "the GOP establishment doesn't seem to have a game plan to take on Trump." However, the most likely plan of attack is to have the remaining 3 candidates work together to take down Trump. No one wants to see America struggle. Many believe that with Trump, that is inevitable.